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By the way, the latest technical analyzes show no concrete signs of weakness in the weekly units In this sentence. This would allow buyers to keep control of the situation without mentioning imminent bull markets. Because, reading between the lines, there are still some lead caps threatening the good performance of BTC, ETH and XAU.
In a market environment where the start of 2023 would look promising, we now look at the possible scenarios we could see on the first two digital currencies and on the yellow metal respectively.
Bitcoin Units Weekly – $26.000 in the immediate future or consolidating towards $20.000?
After completing step four from the beginning of the year, Bitcoin enters this week cautiously, despite having validated the polarity shift from resistance to support around $22.000. This seems logical given the proximity of upcoming macroeconomic events.
However, the latest technical signals favorable to buyers are far from up for discussion. On one side, BTC prices are finally settling into a phase 1 of the Weinstein trial. As evidence of this, the 30-week moving average (MM30 weekly) is hovering above $20.000 or the 2017 ATH. On the other hand, the technical indicators are moving above their respective water lines. With the exception of the MACD, whose signal is a few steps from the zero line to validate the bullish divergence.
Assuming another strong week, Bitcoin's rebound could gain momentum towards $26.000. Even better if with a greater extension, the symbolic $30.000 threshold would come back into play to the point of causing concern on the part of sellers.
On the contrary, a consolidation would intervene and would have the merit of evaluating the strength of the last levels crossed since the beginning of the year, ie the $20.000 and $22.000. And if either were to assert its supportive role, it would not be fanciful to evoke the neutralization of the BTC bear market from its last November 2021 ATH. Only a breach of the $20.000 would put the entire structure of the current tax at risk.
Ethereum Units Weekly: $1.700 Psychological Barrier Worries Buyers
Just like Bitcoin, Ethereum is going through its wishbone. But now, Prices are attacking $1.700, a level that has been bothering buyers since the latest corrective wave. Will we see a "bis repetita" much to the displeasure of the buyers? Or some sort of psychological release that could cause a major turnaround in ETH's structural trend?
At this point, we have the same signals in weekly units of BTC on the same time unit. In the first place, Weinstein's Phase 1 took place late last year. Secondly, it is accompanied by successive price breaches above the descending line, $1400 and the weekly MA30. This helps neutralize sales impulses, at least in the short term. And lately, the rise of the MACD and the RSI is prolonged with the hope that the former will do violence above the zero line.
Assuming $1700 is no longer a psychological barrier for buyers, Ethereum could potentially take off above $2000, or precisely towards $2300. In this case, an upward break of an important resistance would make the crossing of the descending line more reliable. And so, we would be based on a neutralization of his bearrun from his last ATH in November 2021.
In reverse, the threat of mortgaging the current rebound could occur, if we go back below the levels of the FTX case, i.e. $1200 with a $1400 break in the process. This would unfortunately rekindle the sellers, who in turn would see an opportunity to drive the wedge to last year's lows near the $1000 support.
Gold in Weekly Units – The end of a long story gamma ?
From mid-April 2020 to today, gold has been on the move for a long time gamma or horizontal channel between the support at $1680 and the resistance at $2070which in turn follows a strong rally at the worst time of the Covid crisis. In general, this chart pattern indicates a lack of trend in one direction or the other. However, it often portends a strong outward movement.
At the time of writing, XAU's prices are on the high end of the gamma thanks to a series of crosses of key levels such as $1730, $1800 and $1870. But as the FED meeting approached, for three consecutive weeks they had been trudging below $1932. Especially since the yellow metal is the asset that is likely to react significantly to US central bank decisions.
If gold managed to rebound from its $1680 support, thanks to a stabilization of real rates (nominal rates net of future inflation) linked to a favorable conjunction of both the dollar and US bond rates. It reflects, in an anticipated and explicit way, the end of the Fed's monetary tightening. Maybe we are rushing too much. But financial markets can be irrational for as long as we think.
Should you return to the top of the gammaIf the commodity price rises above $1932 or $1975, the RSI will be in the overbought zone. An uninterrupted bounce could prove to be a trap for late buyers. With the possibility of legitimate profit taking in case of disappointment at the FED meeting.
On the other hand, shrewd buyers would not bother piling positions should consolidation become necessary. As result, they will wisely wait for a return to the resistances of yore. Provided that gold prices do not rush past the $1800 mark.
BTC, ETH and XAU – Waiting for the FED meeting
Current Rebounds in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Gold Would Partly Incorporate the Beginning of the End of the FED's Monetary Tightening throughout the year 2023. Assuming the US central bank adjusts to market expectations, there would be room for a possible equity market downturn. buy rumors and sell newsto come forward.
This would trigger profit taking without questioning the respective trends. But better still, a consolidation would allow buyers who missed the opportunity to jump on the bandwagon to position themselves in favorable market conditions.
Conversely, if the Fed continues to assert its willingness to raise key rates on the pretext that inflation could not return to around 2% for quite some time, fear a sale of great scope. As a result, the dollar and bond yields could arrest their respective declines towards new highs.
BTC and ETH would risk misbehaving in the event of new tensions on the financial markets. The same goes for the barbarian's relic, which could initially serve as a spare tire to offset margin calls. Like this, the year 2023 would in fact be a continuation of what happened in 2022but perhaps in a more anxious psychological dimension.
