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After last week's cold shower, Bitcoin is coming to its senses. So much so that it managed to keep around an intermediate level which helped push it towards the summer highs. There are now many questions as to whether the technical rebound has held up since mid-June.
Given the gradual return of current market uncertainties, hesitation prevails over recent technical analyzes in the short term. But the continuity of the summer dynamics could still take over. To the extent that we could potentially see a legitimate consolidation to push BTC prices back up before a hard return to reality by September.
Bitcoin - Truce after last week's heavy drop
Bitcoin prices appear to have calmed down after last week's steep drop. Indeed, This week's candle demonstrates this through a doji. This would show that buyers and sellers are eager to stall in anticipation of new catalysts. For now, it would be too early to conclude whether the technical rebound since mid-June is over or not.
As we said for Ethereum, new favorable technical signals need to materialize as soon as possible to hope for a continuation of the technical rebound. At the moment, BTC prices are again moving away from the descending line since the last ATH in November 2021. At the same time, they are halfway to the lows of the year, especially the $ 20.000 support.
On the other hand, this pullback from last week has also led to a slowdown in technical indicators towards their respective waterlines. But the key point to remember about the weekly chart is that Weinstein Phase 4 and the the shoulder-head-shoulder(ETE) have the upper hand much to the chagrin of cryptocurrency investors.
This means that, in the medium to long term, a reversal or neutralization of the bear market will not occur in the short term. To counter the plans of a new wave of decline, it would be necessary that Bitcoin has already returned to its August highs and then definitively break through the resistance of $ 26.000. From this potential positive technical signal, the $ 30.000 resistance would be the next target for extending the technical rebound.
Bitcoin - Timeframe around $ 22.000
Since August 20, Bitcoin prices have stagnated around the support of $ 22.000, which corresponds to the neckline of the triple bottom. But the status quo keeps growing day by day, Cryptocurrency investors should expect violent movement in both directions. In practical terms, to get straight to the point, it would be all or nothing.
The first scenario would bring us back towards the $ 26.000 resistance. subject to a return to support of $ 22.000 and technical indicators above their respective waterlines. And finally, it could unlock further upside potential. With prices move above the downtrend line and head towards $ 30.000 a decisive level of the last running of the bulls.
As for the second scenario, it could be a disaster with the threat of a brutal return to support of $ 20.000. In fact, the fear of a new downward wave would accelerate the recovery of the Bitcoin bear market since the last ATH in November 2021, should new lows of the year occur. This would unfortunately validate the last phase in the name of capitulation with the support of $ 12.000 as the main objective.
BTC - One last resistance before the bear market resumes?
As the end of August approaches, the current uncertainties on the financial markets, curiously set aside, are gradually making a comeback. But since the time for the return of large flows of capital has not yet arrived, Bitcoin could legitimize a last stand. There is only an extension of his technical rebound.
Especially since it would be better to do it next week. Not only will the Fed's budget reduction accelerate in September. But a slowdown in monetary tightening would not be on the agendaThis is despite hopes for Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. These headwinds could sooner or later put an end to the technical rebound of all risky asset classes.
In this case, BTC prices would resume the bear market path from the last ATH of 2021. And as if that weren't enough, the specter of a mix of recession and sustained inflation would drive them to new lows of the year that would remain difficult to pin down in the presence of potential systemic stresses.
