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Bitcoin (BTC) hesitation near an all-time high suggests bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger to start the next trend move.
The bulls are looking for a positive catalyst to push the price above resistance. Conversely, the bears may be waiting for any signs of weakness that could confirm a short-term top.
The event that can act as a trigger is the Nasdaq listing of Coinbase's COIN shares on April 14. A successful listing is likely to be applauded by cryptocurrency bulls as it could signal greater adoption of cryptocurrencies by mainstream investors in the future. Conversely, a lukewarm reception to Coinbase's listing could win the bears over.
The waves of holdings on Onchain suggest that long-term investors and short-term speculators are not taking profits, as they expect higher levels in the future. An increase in the number of HODLers is usually a bullish sign.
If this happens, short-term speculators are likely to panic first and empty their positions. This can hit swing traders' stops (long-term) and intensify the sell-off, setting the stage for a deeper correction.
As the markets wait for a trigger, let's analyze the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could benefit from the bullish sentiment.
BTC / USDT
Bitcoin rose above the resistance above $ 60.000 on April 10 and reached $ 61.301,21, just below the all-time high of $ 61.825,84. However, the bulls continue to find it difficult to keep the price above $ 60.000, indicating strong bear resistance.
The price has yet to break above $ 60.000, which means the reverse shoulder-head-shoulder (SHS) model is not yet complete.
The bears will try to take advantage of the small window of opportunity and pull the price down to the 20-day EMA ($ 57,513). A strong rebound from this support will increase the possibility of a break above $ 61.825,84.
If this happens, the BTC / USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend which could push the price to $ 69.540 and then to $ 79.566.
On the other hand, if the bears push the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair could challenge the critical support at the 50-day simple moving average ($ 54,723). A break below this support will be the first indication of a possible trend change.
The 4-hour chart shows that bears are active above $ 60.000. However, the positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to hold below the 20-EMA. This means that the bulls are buying on every little dip.
If the bulls can once again push the price above $ 60.000, the pair can challenge the all-time record. Conversely, if the bears bring the price below the 20-EMA, a drop to $ 57.600 is possible. If this support cracks, the next stop could be $ 55.600.
XLM / USDT
Stellar Lumens (XLM) broke the $ 0.60 resistance today and hit a new 52-week high at $ 0.65. Whenever an asset hits a new 52-week high, it is a sign of strength because it shows that traders are eager to buy because they expect the price to rise again.
The upward sloping 20-day EMA ($ 0,46) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. If the bulls can push the price above $ 0.65, the XLM / USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend which could reach $ 0.72 and then $ 0.85.
However, the long wick on today's candle suggests that the bears have other plans. They are trying to trap the aggressive bulls and pull the price below $ 0,60. If the bulls do not allow the price to fall below $ 0,55, this will suggest accumulation on the jumps. This will keep the sentiment positive.
In contrast to this assumption, if the bears bring the price below $ 0,55, a drop in the 20-day EMA is possible. A break below this support will indicate that the bulls have lost their hold.
The 4-hour chart shows that the pair closed above $ 0.60, but the bulls could not build on this strength. The bears took the opportunity and pulled the price below the breakout level of $ 0,60.
However, if the bears fail to bring the price down to the 20 EMA, this will suggest that the bulls are taking over, which translates into the possibility of a resumption of the upside. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA could tilt the lead in favor of the bears.
MIOTA / USDT
IOTA (MIOTA) is in an uptrend. The bulls pushed the price above the psychologically important $ 2 level on April 10th. If the bulls can sustain the breakout, the upward move could reach the next target at $ 2,35, then $ 2,60.
The rising 20-day EMA ($ 1,66) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest that the bulls have the upper hand.
However, if the bulls fail to hold the price above $ 2, the bears may try to pull the price down from the 20-day EMA. The bulls have successfully defended this support since the start of the current rally phase in March.
Therefore, if the price bounces off the 20-day EMA again, it will suggest that sentiment remains positive and that the bulls are buying on dips. Alternatively, a break below the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bears are making a comeback. The 4-hour chart shows profit taking above $ 2. The MIOTA / USDT pair may now fall to the 20-EMA, which is sloping. If the price bounces through this level, it will improve the prospects for a recovery of the uptrend.
Conversely, if the bears bring the price below the 20-EMA, the pair could extend its decline to the 50-SMA. Such a deep correction could delay the start of the next stage of the setup.
XMR / USDT
Monero (XMR) broke above the $ 268,60 resistance on April 10, indicating a possible resumption of the uptrend. If the bulls can sustain this breakout, the altcoin could rally to the next target at $ 334 and then $ 384.
The rising 20-day EMA ($ 258) and the RSI above 75 suggest that the path of least resistance is up.
However, if the bulls fail to hold the price above $ 288,60, XMR / USDT could fall to the 20-day EMA. A strong rebound on this support suggests that sentiment remains positive and that the bulls are buying on the lows. The bulls will try again to resume the uptrend.
On the other hand, if bears drop the price below the 20-day EMA, this will suggest a possible change in sentiment. This could result in a decline towards the 50-day SMA ($ 232).
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears have tried to block the rally near the psychological resistance at $ 300, but the bulls have not given up much ground. They bought the 20-EMA support and pushed the price above $ 300.
Rising moving averages and the RSI near the overbought area suggest that the bulls are in control.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price falls and breaks below the moving averages. Such a move will indicate that demand has dried up and traders are booking profits. This could push the price up to $ 250.
XTZ / USDT
Tezos (XTZ) is in a strong uptrend. It broke above the resistance at $ 5,64 on April 5th and completed a successful retest of the breakout level on April 7th and 8th. The altcoin resumed its uptrend and made a new high at $ 7,21 on April 10.
The 20-day EMA ($ 5,42) is sloping and the RSI is close to the overbought territory, indicating a bullish rally. In a strong uptrend, corrections typically last between one and three days for traders who aggressively buy every small dip.
The long wick on today's candle suggests that traders are buying at lower levels. If they manage to push the price above $ 7,21, XTZ / USDT could hit the next target at $ 8,14.
The main support on the downside is the 20-day EMA. If the price bounces off this support, it will suggest that sentiment remains bullish. Buyers will then try to push the price above $ 7,21 again. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA suggests that the bullish momentum has weakened.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are trying to stop the pullback at the 20-day EMA. If they manage to push the price above $ 6,85, a retest of $ 7,21 is possible. A break of this resistance will initiate the next up leg.
Contrary to this assumption, if the pair breaks out and holds below the 20-EMA, it could fall to the 50-SMA. The bulls are likely to defend this support aggressively as the price has not fallen below the 50-SMA since March 29, 2021.
However, if the bulls do not stop at the 50-SMA, this hypothesis could extend to $ 5,40 and then to $ 4,60.
