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While this week will be marked by the release of the PCE (Household consumption price index) and the results of the GAFAMthe market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remains surprisingly flat. This is despite the continuing uncertainty in the financial markets. Because apparently many investors are still trying to find excuses abouta breakthrough of the FED.
The real question is whether the US central bank will be seduced by the sirens of a slowdown in monetary tightening. Or if keeps the course confirming what was said at the Jackson Hole symposium. In reality, everything will depend on the evolution of the main economic statistics. But as we speak, it is clear that they are not going in the direction desired by the Fed.
In this market context, where doubt reigns even more, Bitcoin and Ethereum have not done badly in recent weeks. Without their bear markets being questioned. Hence the caution not to take the presumably serene mood on the first two digital currencies at face value.
In what promises to be a busy week on the finance planet, let's see what awaits us the latest technical analysis on BTC and ETH prices.
Bitcoin in weekly units - The price breakout above the descending line lacks conviction
Bitcoin continues to play cat and mouse around the $ 20.000 support. So much so that many investors feel frustrated week after week. On the other hand, we do not want to be picky, given the losses already recorded since the beginning of the year. Furthermore, prices are slightly above the current bearrun's descending line.
Despite a slowly progressing MACD, this favorable technical signal lacks conviction. Especially because Weinstein's phase 4 is indisputable. The 30-week moving average is now below the $ 26.000 resistance. Its bearish momentum, if still strong, could act as a headwind to BTC's bear market neutrality since its last ATH in November 2021.
The problem with coming up with a scenario that can reassure potential buyers is that it would require a return to the levels that Bitcoin broke over the course of the year. In this sense, a return to $ 20.000 would be a good place to start. Provided that prices remain at $ 26.000.and at the same time validating a potential double bottom to get back in contact with the $ 30.000 resistance.
Otherwise, the threat below $ 20.000 would obviously not be good news. With a third wave of correction in play that would close a disastrous year of 2022 towards the $ 12.000 support.
Ethereum in weekly units - Prices do not miss 2018 ATH
Ethereum continues to float around ATH 2018, not far from the $ 1400 resistance since mid-September. Right now, Prices still remain far from the descending line despite a MACD which, fortunately, narrowly avoided a bearish cross. The hard digestion after The Merge seems to be coming to an end. However, like Bitcoin, it lacks the conviction needed to revive a new rally.
On one side, Weinstein phase 4 still remains in the foreground, whether you like it or not. Although ETH prices have stabilized recently, the downward bias of the weekly MM30 shows no signs of easing. On the other hand, technical indicators do not advance rapidly towards their respective waterlines. This would indicate a buying frenzy as the weeks pass from mid-September.
Assuming a return greater than $ 1400, Ethereum would have a third chance to break through the $ 1700 resistance. And if it happens, we would have the luxury of breaking through the downtrend line and climbing to the $ 2300 resistance.a level that represented the previous low of gamma or horizontal channel formed between the end of January and last May.
Next to, Ethereum would risk moving towards the lows of the year, close to the $ 1000 support. With the fear of participating in a new wave of correction that could prove detrimental to the altcoin ecosystem. Therefore, sellers should aim for the $ 700 support if the downward movement remains politically correct in the jargon of technical analysis.
BTC and ETH - Current situations could still be prolonged
If the macro and micro news of the week, or unforeseen events in both directions, fails to animate the financial world, the status quo of Bitcoin and Ethereum could potentially extend longer than expected. So much so that investors would be swinging between expectation and anxiety.
Not only that, the positive catalysts we have would be little more than pretexts for a sustained rebound in risky asset classes. Especially since they are considered to be rumors that could trigger unhealthy upward price movements. But even worse, we don't imagine the Fed will change its stance on monetary tightening overnight.
In the medium term, a recession in the United States with inflation above the average of the last two decades cannot be ruled out. Even if the consensus wants to sell us a soft landing, this potential scenario would damage the credibility of the US central bank in its fight against inflation.
If so, we should expect a tumultuous storm across all risky asset classes. And in a market that is heading for a tail blow, Bitcoin and Ethereum, which depend on liquidity, would risk aggravating their bear markets. to levels that eradicate much of their last run.
