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As the FTX failure contagion spreads across the cryptocurrency industry, Bitcoin and Ethereum see their respective supports under threat forever. No longer able to momentarily count on the drop in the dollar and the lull in bond yields, they seem to be closer to a new wave of correction than to a remontada which could put pressure on sellers.
The latest technical analysis does not encourage optimism. Especially because the FED has always confirmed that it will continue to tighten until inflation is under control. A change on his part would not be on the agenda. But the recent rise in stock indices suggests otherwise. To such an extent that the financial markets are willing to challenge the Don't fight the Fed.
In an atmosphere full of question marks, let's take a closer look at possible BTC and ETH price scenarios for this week and beyond.
Bitcoin in Weekly Units – Soon under $16.000?
The danger of falling below $16.000 was not long in coming. And with good reason, Bitcoin made a stealthy dip below this level earlier in the week, before easing back slightly above it at the time of writing. But either way, sellers wouldn't want to wait until the end of November to take the hit.
Technically speaking, the latter, who were undecided a few weeks ago, would now have signals pointing to a third wave of BTC correction since the last ATH of November 2021. First, crossing the descending line did not have the desired effect. We are therefore forced to readjust it slightly according to the latest market movements.
Second, Weinstein's Phase 4 shows excellent form Much to the disappointment of cryptocurrency investors. Just the bearish momentum of the 30-week moving average (MM30 weekly) has not shown any sign of attenuation. With the prospect of reaching $20.000.
Finally, if the technical indicators are clearly below their respective waterlines, then there is only a bearish MACD crossover missing from the signal. In this way the buyers' heads would be permanently submerged in water.
If the $16.000 level breaks down, the Bitcoin bear market will accelerate to the downside. With the aim that prices reach $12.000 support. But as we said last Friday, we are concerned that this downside potential is just a starter for the sellers.
On the other hand, and given the circumstances of FTX's bankruptcy, support at $16.000 could bring BTC back towards $20.000. or the 2017 ATH when things settle down.
Ethereum Units Weekly – Is $1.200 About to Give Up?
After the respective failures of the break of the descending line, the resistance at $1700 and the weekly MM30, Ethereum is said to be on the verge of breaking above the $1200 support. Especially since we had losses of an ETH to BTC conversion from the Bahamas which could explain the current downward movement. And at the same time, we are feverishly watching a possible confirmation of the bearish cross on the MACD in relation to the signal.
To the extent that this potential negative signal adds to Weinstein's Phase 4, sellers would not necessarily welcome a return to $1000 support. A break of the latter value would push ETH prices towards 700 or even 450 dollars. Ultimately, this would represent a decline of more than 90% since the last ATH in November 2021.
In reverse, a return above $1200 and a false bearish cross on the MACD would support hopes of stopping the Ethereum bleeding since the beginning of the month. If that happens, the next bounce should be more convincing than the previous ones. With the risk that buyers will be disappointed for the umpteenth time.
BTC and ETH – Buyers in trouble!
Looking at the latest weekly charts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, we would hardly give buyers a chance to get back on track. Not only are their bear markets kicking in. But The further we delve into the potential consequences of the FTX failure, the more the crisis of confidence in cryptocurrencies will grow for some time.
To make matters worse, the rise of the main stock indexes, the Fed might not like it. Indeed, it would risk fueling the wealth effect of American households, thus supporting consumer spending and employment. This is one aspect that the US central bank would not want in its fight against inflation. And this is why would risk disappointing market expectations on a change in monetary policy at the next meeting.
Therefore, if the Fed maintains its hard line at the end of the year and into 2023, liquidity-sensitive Bitcoin and Ethereum would still be under pressure. In this case, the probability of new lows of the year would increase dramatically. Especially if the dollar and bond yields resume their respective upward trends.
